The Biden administration on Wednesday responded to Iran’s latest offer to resume its compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal, but neither side is offering a definitive path to revive the agreement, which has been on life-support since former President Donald Trump withdrew from it in 2018.
State Department spokesman Ned Price confirmed that the administration completed its review of Iran’s comments on a European proposal. Price did not detail the administration’s response.
“As you know, we received Iran’s comments on the EU’s proposed final text through the EU,” Price said. “Our review of those comments has now concluded. We have responded to the EU today.”
There is now expected to be another exchange of technical details followed by a meeting of the joint commission that oversees the deal. The new developments, including stepped-up public messaging campaigns by both Tehran and Washington, suggest that an agreement could be near.
Despite the forward movement, numerous hurdles remain. And key sticking points could still unravel efforts to bring back the 2015 deal under which Iran received billions of dollars in sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program intended to prevent it from developing an atomic weapon.
Even U.S. supporters of an agreement are no longer referring to the “longer and stronger” deal that they had initially set out to win when indirect negotiations with Iran began last spring. And, on the Iranian side, demands for greater U.S. sanctions relief than the administration appears willing or able to promise could undercut the push to revive the agreement.
In Washington, the Biden administration faces considerable political opposition to returning to the 2015 deal from both Democrats and Republicans in Congress who remain unconvinced that it is in U.S. national security interests.
“I intend to systematically fight the implementation of this catastrophic deal, and will work with my colleagues to ensure that it is blocked and eventually reversed in January 2025,” said Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.
The recent indictment of an Iranian for plotting to murder Trump’s former national security adviser John Bolton and the attack by an apparent Iran sympathizer on the author Salman Rushdie have further contributed to doubts that Iran can be trusted.
The latest EU proposal does not include Tehran’s demand that the U.S. lift the terrorism designation of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, and Iran has stepped back from a demand that the International Atomic Energy Agency close its investigation into unexplained traces of uranium at three undeclared sites, according to a senior administration official who requested anonymity to discuss ongoing efforts to resurrect the deal.
But, rescinding the terrorism designation imposed by Trump was never a realistic demand. Not only does it fall outside the scope of the nuclear deal, it was made virtually impossible since the Bolton plot indictment, ongoing Iranian threats to other former U.S. officials, and the Rushdie attack.
And, while Iran may have agreed to a mechanism to eventually return to the deal without the IAEA investigation being closed up front, it has said that its actual compliance with an agreement remains contingent on getting a clean bill of health from the agency.
The senior administration official said a “deal is closer than it was two weeks ago,” but cautioned that the outcome remains uncertain “as some gaps remain.”
And, Iranian officials on Tuesday bristled at the suggestion that they’ve stepped back from their demands to re-enter the deal.
Seyed Mohammad Marandi, an Iranian adviser to the indirect talks in Vienna, took to Twitter on Tuesday to assert that removing the IRGC from the State Department’s foreign terrorism list was never a precondition and insisted that “no deal will be implemented before the IAEA Board of Directors PERMANENTLY closes the false accusations file.”
Meanwhile, America’s top ally in the Middle East, Israel, has become increasingly alarmed at the apparent movement toward a deal. Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid on Wednesday urged Biden and Western powers to call off an emerging nuclear deal with Iran, saying that negotiators are letting Tehran manipulate the talks.
“The countries of the West draw a red line, the Iranians ignore it, and the red line moves,” Lapid told reporters at a press conference in Jerusalem.
Israeli alternate prime minster Naftali Bennett on Tuesday noted that Israel is not party to the 2015 agreement signed by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security — the U.S., the United Kingdom, Russia, France, and China as well as Germany — but that Israel would be directly affected and reserved all rights to its self-defense.